Week 1 totals opened too high. Here's the math

BY DANE CARTER

Season openers are the hardest game of the year to price: no current-season data, new coordinators, and every summer the books split the difference between last year’s pace and the offseason hype. Last season, under the new kickoff rules, that split broke hard one way — openers leaned under, and it wasn’t close.

This year’s opening board is set like that never happened. Average week-one total: within half a point of last year’s openers, which closed lower in ten of thirteen games and went under at a rate you don’t see twice by accident.

The math, in one table

Take the openers, compare open to close, compare close to result. The pattern is the same in both hops: the market starts high, corrects late, and still doesn’t correct enough. Early-week unders on the right games capture both moves.

Which games qualify comes down to pace and quarterback continuity — the full list goes on the card the moment the board is final.